Monte Carlo for Engineers: How to Control the Risk in Plant Turnarounds

Related Vendors

Glatt Ingenieurtechnik GmbH

EDL Anlagenbau Gesellschaft mbH

Pörner Ingenieurgesellschaft mbH

BAYERNOIL Raffinerie- gesellschaft mbH

T. A. Cook & Partner Consultants GmbH

more less

Turnaround teams need to think like pilots. Just as the majority of aircraft accidents occur on take-off and landing, so the most critical moments in the turnaround process are the start-up and shutdown, explained Dr. Georg Karl, production manager at Bayernoil.

These phases may only account for around 30 % of the duration of a typical plant turnaround, but their significance cannot be underestimated, he continued, adding that “the start-up and shutdown have a major bearing on the success of the turnaround.”

Manage your Risks

Opportunities and risks are by no means evenly distributed, as he also pointed out, in that the shutdown of a production plant offers potential for optimization and room for improvement but the restart is “perhaps the most critical phase in the entire turnaround.” If a plant cannot be put into operation or if the start of operation is delayed, all the preparatory work will have been in vain.

Moreover, products which are made during start-up and shutdown times frequently do not meet the agreed specifications. Such “off-spec products” cannot be sold and constitute an additional burden for the plant operator. This is another reason why these phases must be kept as short as possible. Process technology and logistics in particular hold the trump cards in this respect, Kroll believes.

Additional Information

Checklist

THREE TRUMP CARDS FOR TURNAROUND

These three factors — applied correctly — will be like playing the trump card in the turnaround process!

Timetable: The timetable must be of the best possible quality in terms of technical and organizational aspects. The projection of the scope should be complete, fully joined-up and dynamic.

Risk analysis: This must include all known technical risks as well as general unknowns. The weather can delay certain work, for example, such as the use of cranes.

Assessment/optimization: The potential impact of risks on the critical path and on the end of the project must be assessed and, where necessary, measures taken to counteract these identified risks.

Evaluating the Possible Alternatives in Turnarounds

And if none of the above measures help, drastic cuts may be needed, with companies often taking advantage of shutdowns to push through optimization plans or capital investment projects.

Staking everything on one card is not always a winning strategy, however: If an advance analysis comes to the conclusion that additional building work will increase the improbability of reaching the milestones, then all possible synergy effects will go up in smoke. It might therefore be a better strategy to reduce the scope and shelve additional projects.

(ID:43273586)