Although oil production has reached historic levels, the gradual shift in the fuel mix affects the global energy bill: New and alternative energies as well as unconventional natural gas (shale gas) drive the transition away from oil and coal. With Venezuela and Mexico, two Latin American states made their way into the global oil producer's top–ten. Still, the OPEC states look optimistically into the future...
Oil is expected to be the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years, the BP Energy Outlook states. Despite these facts, the global hunger for energy could well lead to production levels of 103 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2030. Oil consumption in the OECD states has, nevertheless, likely peaked in 2005, declining by 6 Mb/d until 2030.
The rising demand for petroleum products from China (+8 Mb/d), India (+3.5 Mb/d) and the Middle East (+4 Mb/d) will be mostly satisfied by production in traditional oil exporting states: The output of OPEC members is projected to rise by nearly 12 Mb/d.
Latin America Makes Its Way into Global Oil Producer Top–Ten
But also Non–OPEC production flourishes, due to strong growth in the Americas: Canadian oil sands, Brazilian deepwater, and US shale oil all contribute to the global fuel markets of the future. Crude oil production in offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico (production: 2938 thousand barrels daily) or in Venezuelan (2720 thousand barrels daily) waters have put two Latin American countries among the global oil producer's top–ten. Now, with new discoveries in Brazilian deepwater reservoirs, Latin America could well become a global oil supplier, analysts believe.
Russia's and China's Oil industry Set course for New Business Regions
Russia (10280 thousand barrels daily) and China (4321 thousand barrels daily), two other major no–OPEC oil producers, are already looking for new, untouched regions to explore: While Russia's oil industry has set course for subsea reservoirs of the Arctic, China is busy buying into foreign oil and petro–enterprises to participate from their growth.
Now, as Russia's public oil giant Rosneft aims to take over its joint–venture TKN–BP, the country could soon begin production on offshore oilfields in the Arctic. The acquisition of former competitor TNK–BP could make state owned Rosneft the biggest oil company worldwide, industry experts believe.
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