OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2019 offers an insight into the medium and long-term projections as well as an assessment of the oil and energy industry across the globe.
Vienna/Austria – This includes analysis of the industry’s various linkages and its shifting dynamics, providing insights into energy and oil demand, oil supply and refining, the global economy, policy and technology developments, demographic trends, environmental issues and sustainable development.
In the foreword to the publication, His Excellency Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General said: “With OPEC’s landmark 60th Anniversary taking place in 2020, the WOO 2019 helps establish a platform for discussion in the coming year by laying out possible future oil and energy paths. This year’s WOO once again highlights the industry’s challenges, as well as its opportunities, and underscores the vital requirements for a serious and thorough evaluation of all the factors, drivers and risks to our common long-term energy future.”
This year’s WOO launch was sponsored by the Austrian oil and gas company, OMV, with Rainer Seele, Chief Executive Officer speaking at the launch. Seele said: “OMV highly appreciates the close dialogue with OPEC; both of us are based in the world’s energy capital Vienna. OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2019 is an excellent research-piece of high quality, reflecting OPEC’s deep understanding of the realities and drivers in the global oil industry. OMV, in close partnership with national oil companies from various OPEC countries, values OPEC’s efforts in balancing the global oil market.”
It is important to reiterate that the Outlook is not about making predictions. The WOO should be viewed as a helpful and insightful reference tool, one that underscores the Organization’s commitment to data transparency. It also emphasizes OPEC’s focus on the enhancement of dialogue and cooperation, most recently through the historic ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ and the recently endorsed ‘Charter of Cooperation’ between 24 OPEC and non-OPEC producers, as a means to help secure a sound and stable oil industry.
Some specific highlights from this year’s WOO include:
• Total primary energy demand is set to expand by a robust 25 % between 2018 and 2040.
• All forms of energies will be required in the future to help to meet expanding demand in a sustainable way, balancing the needs of people in relation to their social welfare, the economy and the environment.
• Natural gas witnesses the largest demand growth in absolute terms, and renewables the largest growth in percentage terms.
• Oil is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix throughout the forecast period to 2040.
• Oil demand is forecast to reach 110.6 mb/d by 2040.
• The non-OECD drives oil demand with growth of 21.4 mb/d by 2040 (compared to 2018), whereas the OECD region is expected to contract by 9.6 mb/d.
• Long-term demand growth comes mainly from the petrochemicals (4.1 mb/d), road transportation (2.9 mb/d) and aviation (2.4 mb/d) sectors.
• The total vehicle fleet – including passenger and commercial vehicles – is estimated to grow by more than 1 billion by 2040 to around 2.4 billion.
• The long-term share of electric vehicles in the total fleet is projected to reach a level of around 13 % in 2040, supported by falling battery costs and policy support, but the majority of the growth continues to be for conventional vehicles.
• Non-OPEC liquids supply is projected to grow by 9.9 mb/d between 2018 and 2024, the majority coming from US tight oil, but from the mid-2020s non-OPEC sees a steady decline.
• Demand for OPEC liquids is projected to increase to around 44.4 mb/d in 2040, up from 36.6 mb/d in 2018.
• Crude distillation capacity additions of around 8 mb/d are expected between 2019 and 2024, with over 70 % in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. This is close to 50 % of the total capacity additions required in the long-term to 2040.
• Global crude oil and condensate trade is estimated to remain relatively static at around 38 mb/d between 2018 and 2025, before increasing to around 42 mb/d by 2040.
• The US & Canada is expected to increase crude and condensate exports in the medium-term.
• Over the entire forecast period, the major oil trade route remains the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific.
• In the period to 2040, the required global oil sector investment is estimated at 10.6 trillion dollars.
• Energy poverty remains a major global challenge, with almost one billion people still without access to electricity and three billion lacking access to clean fuels for cooking.
• OPEC remains fully engaged and supportive of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
• The world needs to look for cleaner and more efficient technological solutions everywhere, across all available energies.
• The oil industry has to be part of the solution to climate change; it possesses critical resources and expertise that can help unlock our carbon-free future.