The specialists agreed that the best approach was not to give watertight guarantees but to be able to manage opportunities and risks intelligently. Methods of analysis like the Monte Carlo method can help to identify weak points in the timetable in advance. What is more, a person who charts out projects in detail will not only sense the pitfalls but will also be able to assess the likelihood that certain scenarios will occur.
“We only ever talk about risks — but turnaround management is also about identifying opportunities”, concluded consultant Gert Müller, alluding to the importance of bearing this in mind. A bit of luck does come into play, though, at the end of the day.