Confidence versus scepticism

As we all know, the global economy is a complex organism and the exact relationship between cause and effect not always readily apparent. If the gloomy forecasts of some analysts and observers are to be believed, we should long since have had a global recession bearing down upon us. What recent ­coverage of the US mortgage crisis has made abundantly clear, however, is that unbridled speculation can in no time at all bring the world’s stock exchanges to their knees.
So is the party over? No, it is not — at least not in the pharmaceutical and life sciences industries. This still counts as a growth area, as the results of a ­recent CEO survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers proves. Of the 32 top pharmaceutical managers interviewed, 50 per cent were very confident and 34 per cent ­confident that their companies would continue to grow this year.
The 41 CEOs of international chemical companies interviewed for the same survey were rather more ­sceptical, however, the majority of them citing rising commodity prices and energy costs, and over-regulation, as factors liable to slow down growth. Apart from ­worrying about a possible recession, some company ­leaders are also concerned about the protection of ­intellectual ­property rights in Asia, about competition from low-wage countries and, by no means least, about the availability — or rather shortage — of qualified ­employees.
Against such a backdrop, the rather overworked ­slogan “Think global, act local” is now more relevant than ever before. Companies, after all, have no choice but to continue to analyse the situation in each country and on each market in order to find the best response to local demand. And perhaps it is time we all rid ourselves of the idea that double-digit growth year after year is necessary, or even desirable. Really good surfers can surf on smaller waves too.